| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature measured in Dallas on March 23, 2026 will be and matters to anyone exposed to weather risk, short‑term energy demand, event planning, or who tracks climate variability.
Late March in Dallas is a transitional period with large swings possible between warm and cool conditions; day‑to‑day outcomes depend heavily on the position of frontal systems and large‑scale weather patterns. Climatic trends have increased the frequency of warm extremes, but individual calendar‑date outcomes remain driven by short‑term meteorology and local factors.
Market prices represent the collective, real‑time expectations about which temperature outcome will be the maximum on that date and update as model forecasts and observations change. Treat prices as dynamic forecasts that summarize available information rather than fixed probabilities.
Resolution will rely on the reporting source specified in the market's contract—typically an NWS‑certified station or consolidated city observation. Consult the market's resolution rules to see the exact station or dataset used.
Daily maxima are normally taken from a 24‑hour observation period tied to local time (often midnight to midnight) at the designated reporting station; check the event's contract for the precise observation window and time conventions.
A frontal passage typically brings cooler air, increased clouds, and possible precipitation—conditions that reduce daytime highs—so the timing of the front relative to peak heating is a key determinant of whether higher or lower outcomes prevail.
Historical values give context on typical variability and past extremes for that calendar date, helping you judge how anomalous a forecast would be, but the actual outcome is primarily controlled by that day's synoptic setup and recent weather.
The market will follow its published dispute and resolution procedures: that may include using backup stations, alternate official datasets, or an adjudication process described in the contract. Review those resolution rules for details on contingencies.