| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the maximum air temperature recorded in Dallas during the local day of March 22, 2026 will be. It matters to traders and local stakeholders because the day’s peak temperature affects energy demand, outdoor events, and short‑term weather risk decisions.
Late March is a highly variable time in North Texas as cold-season frontal systems remain possible while spring warming increases the chance of mild to warm days; meteorological outcomes can swing widely from one year to the next. Regional drivers include large‑scale synoptic patterns (position of troughs, ridges, and frontal boundaries), Gulf of Mexico moisture, and near‑surface conditions across the Dallas metro area.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s evolving expectation for which temperature range will contain the day’s maximum; they update as new weather model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Use prices as a real‑time signal of expected outcomes, not a fixed forecast, and confirm details in the market’s settlement rules.
Settlement will use the official daily maximum air temperature as recorded for the Dallas location specified in the market’s settlement rules (typically the designated National Weather Service station for the Dallas area). Consult the event’s rules page to confirm the exact station and data source.
The measurement window is the local calendar day for March 22, 2026 (00:00 to 23:59 local time) unless the market’s settlement rules state a different time standard; verify the event rules for the precise start/end times and time zone.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range defined on the event page; when the official daily maximum is published it falls into exactly one of those ranges and that outcome settles as the winner. Check the event page for exact range boundaries and any rounding conventions.
The market’s settlement procedure specifies fallback and dispute rules—common approaches include using the nearest official station, an official revision window, or a designated backup data source. Refer to the event’s settlement policy for the exact procedure and any timelines for challenges.
Historical climatology for March 22 gives context about typical and extreme values on that calendar date and helps set baseline expectations, but each year’s outcome is primarily driven by that day’s specific synoptic setup; combine historical context with current model forecasts for better judgment.