| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Dallas on March 21, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature outcomes reflect both immediate weather systems and broader seasonal/climate factors that affect energy demand, agriculture, and daily life.
Late March is a transitional period in North Texas when cold-season storms and spring warmth both remain possible; day-to-day temperatures can swing widely depending on frontal passages and air-mass origins. Historical records show substantial variability on single dates from year to year, and meteorological context in the days leading up to March 21 will strongly influence the result.
Market odds aggregate traders' views about likely outcomes based on current forecasts, observations, and uncertainty; they update as new weather data arrive. Treat odds as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast—expect movement as models and observations change.
Resolution will follow the market's published settlement rules on the KALSHI event page; typically this is the official maximum air temperature recorded at the designated observing station for Dallas during the calendar date defined by the market.
The specific observing station or data source should be listed in the market's rules or description; commonly exchanges use an official National Weather Service/NOAA station or another clearly specified meteorological data provider—check the market details or contact KALSHI support for the definitive source.
The market close time is listed on the KALSHI event page (currently TBD); exchanges often close markets before the outcome window or at a set time prior to resolution—monitor the market page for updates and any announced close time.
The market's settlement rules should specify the timezone and exact observation window used for the date (for example local standard time or UTC-based bounds); consult those rules to understand which hourly observations count toward the maximum.
Whether revisions affect settlement depends on the exchange's stated data policy; many markets use final quality-controlled observations and allow a brief period for dispute or correction as specified in their rules—check the event's settlement and dispute procedures for details.