| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Dallas on March 20, 2026 will be and why that extreme matters for risk management, energy demand, and weather-sensitive planning. It aggregates market participants' expectations about that single calendar day's peak temperature.
Dallas temperatures in late March can swing widely due to the transition between winter fronts and spring warmth; individual days can be influenced by fronts, sunshine, or persistent cloud and rain. Seasonal climate patterns (e.g., El Niño/La Niña tendencies), regional drought or soil moisture, and the urban heat island effect all provide background context that affects how warm the day could be.
Market odds summarize traders' collective views about which outcome will be realized and will update as weather forecasts and observations change. Treat the market as a real-time signal of expectations rather than a substitute for operational weather forecasts or official records.
The settlement will use the peak surface air temperature reported by the official data source named in the market's resolution rules for that calendar day; check the event page to see which station or dataset is specified.
The market's resolution rules specify the authoritative source (commonly an NWS/NOAA official station or the designated airport observation); consult the event page to confirm the exact source used for settlement.
Typically it refers to the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59:59 local time) at the reporting station identified in the contract; check the event details for any alternate timezone or cutoff specifications.
The contract's contingency procedures govern such cases and often specify fallback options like an alternate nearby official station or the use of final quality-controlled datasets; review the market's resolution section for precise fallback rules.
As forecast models, observations, and short-term outlooks change—e.g., new model runs indicating a front, rain, or stronger sunshine—market participants will update positions, causing market prices to move to reflect the evolving expectations.