| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Dallas on March 2, 2026 will be, letting traders express expectations about that single calendar day's peak temperature. It matters because day-to-day temperature extremes influence energy use, transportation, and outdoor plans in the Dallas area.
Dallas in early March sits in the late-winter/early-spring transition, so temperatures can swing widely depending on the timing of cold fronts, Gulf moisture, and upper‑level pattern changes. The market presents six discrete outcomes and will settle against an official observing source specified on the event page; check the event page for the named station and settlement rules. Weather-driven markets like this often move as new model runs and observations clarify the synoptic setup.
Market prices reflect the collective information and beliefs of traders about that day's peak temperature and update as forecasts and observations change. Use prices as a summary of market expectations, while consulting official forecasts and model guidance for operational decisions.
Close time is listed on the event page as TBD; settlement will follow the event's published rules and typically uses the highest temperature recorded during the local calendar day of March 2, 2026 at the named observing source. Verify the exact close and settlement times on the market page.
The market's settlement source is specified on the event page; markets like this commonly reference an official National Weather Service station or specified instrumented location. Check the event rules to see the exact station or dataset used for settlement.
Monitor official NWS forecast updates for the Dallas area, short‑range deterministic models (e.g., latest runs), ensemble guidance for spread, satellite and radar for cloud/precip changes, and any surface observations or soundings that affect frontal timing.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and sense of variability for early March, but the specific synoptic setup and short‑range forecasts typically dominate market moves as the date approaches.
Shifts in frontal timing or strength, sudden model agreement changes (e.g., a major run bringing in warm advection or a strong trough), notable observational updates (surface or radiosonde), or rapidly changing cloud/precip forecasts can all produce rapid market adjustments.