| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest official air temperature recorded in Dallas will be on March 18, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, health advisories, and local weather-sensitive decisions.
Dallas in mid‑March sits in a transition season where temperatures can swing widely depending on the position of the jet stream and frontal systems. Year‑to‑year variability is driven by large‑scale patterns (e.g., ridging vs. troughing), Gulf of Mexico moisture, and short‑term synoptic timing; the event resolves to an observation from the official Dallas area station designated by the exchange.
Market odds represent the crowd’s aggregated expectation for which temperature outcome will be observed; they update continuously as new forecast models, observations, and day‑of conditions become available and are not guarantees of the result.
Settlement will use the official highest air temperature reported by the designated Dallas area station and authority named in the contract’s settlement rules; check the event page or exchange rules for the exact station and reporting source.
Most contracts use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) unless the market specifies a different observation window—confirm the exact timing in the market’s settlement documentation.
Forecast model runs and local observations will typically move market expectations as soon as new guidance is released; updates 3–5 days out and especially within 48 hours can cause the largest shifts, with further intraday changes on the event day as observations arrive.
A persistent upper‑level ridge with warm southerly or southwest flow, dry low‑level air, clear skies, and absence or delay of any cold front are the main scenarios that would push daytime highs well above seasonal norms.
Yes. Station siting, instrumentation, and post‑processing can produce small differences; the exchange’s designated observation source determines resolution and any disputes are handled per the market’s published settlement and appeals procedures.