| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bracket will be the highest temperature recorded in Dallas on March 12, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders because daily high temperatures drive decisions in energy demand, event planning, and short-term hedging.
Dallas experiences large early-spring temperature variability driven by transient cold fronts, late-season warm spells, and strong southern sun angles; March dates often see rapid swings. This market uses discrete outcomes (six options) to let participants express views on likely temperature ranges; check the contract for the exact outcome definitions and the designated observing station. The market closes and final resolution timing are listed on the contract page (currently TBD).
Market prices summarize the collective view of participants about which temperature outcome is most likely, incorporating model forecasts and new observations as they arrive. Use prices together with independent forecasts and your risk preferences, remembering that prices update as weather information changes.
Close time is shown on the market page (currently TBD). Resolution occurs after the official daily maximum for March 12, 2026 is published for the designated observing station, per the contract's resolution rules.
The contract description names the official observing station used for resolution; check the market’s resolution section to see whether it uses a specific NOAA/NWS station (for example, an airport station) or another specified data source.
The market follows the measurement and date conventions specified in the contract—typically the maximum air temperature reported for the local calendar date at the designated station. Verify whether the contract uses local standard time, UTC, and the exact measurement interval.
Monitor short-range deterministic and ensemble model trends (ECMWF, GFS ensembles), NWS forecast discussions, surface analyses for frontal timing, upper-air charts for ridging/troughing, and real-time observations that inform final-day adjustments.
Resolution follows the contract’s stated data source and any official corrections from that source. The exchange’s dispute and resolution policy governs how corrected official data are handled; consult the market rules for the final adjudication process.