| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 72° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 81° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks what the maximum air temperature recorded in Dallas on March 11, 2026 will be, and matters to traders hedging weather risk (energy demand, event planning, agriculture) and to forecasters testing short-term skill.
Dallas spring temperatures are highly variable from year to year because of the frequent passage of frontal systems and the influence of large-scale jet and ridge patterns. Local factors such as cloud cover, soil moisture, and urban heat island effects also modulate daily maxima. Markets like this capture evolving information from forecasts and observations as the event date approaches.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which temperature-range outcome will occur and will move as new meteorological data arrives. To understand final settlement, always consult the event’s official settlement rules rather than prices alone.
The market’s settlement rules specify the official observing station and dataset used for settlement; check the Kalshi event terms to see the named station (for example an NWS/NOAA ASOS or COOP site) and the exact data source.
The event’s terms define the observation window and relevant time zone (typically the local calendar date at the chosen station); review the market’s settlement rules to confirm the start/end times and any daylight saving time considerations.
Outcomes correspond to the predefined temperature ranges listed on the market page; the observed highest temperature measured at the official station will be compared to those ranges using the rounding and threshold rules specified in the settlement terms to determine the winning outcome.
Contingency procedures for missing or invalid data are detailed in the market’s settlement rules — common approaches include using an alternate nearby official station, using a backup dataset, or following a specified arbitration process; consult the event terms for the exact procedure.
Shifts in numerical weather model guidance on the timing/intensity of fronts or large-scale ridges, changes in forecast cloud cover and precipitation, and observed temperature trends at the official station in the 48–72 hours before the date are the primary drivers that typically change market prices.