| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 94% | 94¢ | 98¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will register as the highest observed in Dallas on March 10, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperatures affect energy demand, public health planning, and short-term weather-sensitive trading.
March in Dallas is a highly transitional month that can produce either late-winter cold snaps or early warm spells; year-to-year variability is strong and driven by large-scale atmospheric patterns. Local factors such as frontal passages, Gulf moisture influx, and urban heat effects frequently determine whether a single warm or cool day stands out in early March. Traders should consider both synoptic-scale drivers and local observational practices when evaluating this event.
Market prices represent collective expectations about which temperature range will be the daily maximum recorded for the specified Dallas reporting location on March 10, 2026. Always check the contract page to confirm the exact observation station and measurement definitions used for settlement.
Settlement will use the official observational data source and station specified in the contract terms on the exchange; check the market's contract page for the named reporting station and data provider (for example, the designated National Weather Service/NOAA reporting station).
The market uses the daily maximum as defined by the designated reporting authority in the contract, typically the highest official air temperature recorded during the local calendar day for the specified station; consult the contract for the exact time-zone and measurement conventions used for settlement.
Traders should account for Dallas's strong seasonal variability in March, when both cold frontal incursions and unseasonably warm Gulf-influenced days are possible; multi-year climate variability and teleconnections can also bias the odds toward either cooler or warmer outcomes in a given year.
Monitor global and regional NWP models and their ensembles (e.g., operational and ensemble runs), short-range mesoscale models, surface observations and webcams, satellite and radar for cloud/precipitation trends, upper-air soundings, and official NWS forecast updates for the Dallas area.
Disputes are resolved according to the exchange's published settlement and dispute procedures; they rely on the official data source named in the contract, and participants should follow the exchange's process for submitting evidence or inquiries if they believe the published observation is in error.