| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official highest recorded temperature in Dallas, Texas, on April 3, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related volatility or speculating on localized climate patterns.
April in North Texas is a transitional period characterized by significant variability as cold fronts from the north collide with warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. Historical data for early April in Dallas typically shows a wide range of outcomes, reflecting the region's susceptibility to rapidly changing spring weather systems. Market participants look to long-range meteorological forecasts and historical climate averages to gauge potential temperature ranges.
The current pricing reflects the collective expectation of market participants regarding the specific temperature range that will be reported by the official weather station for Dallas on the target date.
The resolution is typically based on the official daily high temperature recorded at the primary NWS weather station for Dallas, often Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.
Dallas often experiences high volatility in April; temperatures can fluctuate significantly depending on whether the region is under the influence of a polar air mass or a southern warm front.
The market resolves based on the official recorded maximum temperature reported by the designated weather authority, regardless of the weather phenomena causing it.
No, the market tracks the maximum temperature recorded during the 24-hour calendar day of April 3, 2026, regardless of the specific hour it occurs.
No, the outcome is strictly based on the actual air temperature reading, not the 'feels like' temperature or heat index.