| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72° to 73° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $43K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $35K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| 67° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict which of six temperature outcome buckets will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 9, 2026. It matters because it aggregates real-time expectations about a specific weather outcome and can be used to hedge weather risk or test forecasting skill.
Mid-March in Chicago is a transitional period with high day-to-day variability driven by the clash of lingering cold continental air and incoming milder Pacific or Gulf air masses; year-to-year outcomes on a given calendar date can differ widely. Markets like this draw on short-range numerical model forecasts, surface observations, and local climatology to form prices and trade volume.
Market prices represent the collective judgment of participants about which temperature range will be observed and will update as new forecasts and observations arrive. They are not guarantees — final settlement depends on the official observed maximum and the market's published settlement rules.
The market page lists the six discrete outcome buckets and their corresponding temperature intervals; consult the event's outcome table on KALSHI for the precise breakpoints used for settlement.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event summary; check the KALSHI market page for the announced trading close and the settlement window (the highest temperature is the maximum observed during the calendar date specified, per the market rules).
The market's settlement rules on KALSHI specify the official observation station and data feed used for settlement—review those rules to see whether an NOAA station (e.g., O'Hare or Midway) or another official source will be used and how time conventions are applied.
Settlement uses the maximum verified air temperature as defined in the event's rules (typically the highest official 2-meter air temperature recorded at the designated station during the named calendar date, subject to the platform's data quality and correction procedures); the exact definition is in the market documentation.
Prices will move as traders incorporate new model outputs, surface observations, and short-term trends up to the market close; once trading has closed and the settlement observation period begins, prices stop reflecting new information and the final outcome is determined by the observed maximum and the published settlement procedure.