| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $79K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $65K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 7, 2026; it matters because temperature outcomes drive weather-sensitive decisions and reflect short-term atmospheric variability.
March is a transitional month in Chicago when large swings between cold and mild conditions are common due to passing mid-latitude systems and Great Lakes influences. Seasonal patterns, recent synoptic setups, and short-term model guidance all shape expectations for any given March day.
Market odds aggregate trader expectations about the range of possible high temperatures and update as new information (forecasts, observations) becomes available; they are not a substitute for official meteorological warnings or forecasts.
The contract settles to the highest air temperature as defined by the event's resolution clause — typically the maximum instantaneous or hourly air temperature recorded at the specified observing station during the local calendar date; check the event page for the contract's precise definition, time window, and rounding rules.
The event page or resolution text lists the official data source (for example, a named National Weather Service/ASOS station or an NWS daily summary). Consult that field on the KALSHI contract to see which station and dataset will be used for settlement.
Trading close is shown on the market page (this event currently shows Close: TBD); final settlement typically occurs after the official daily observations are published and within the resolution window specified by the contract, so check the event page for exact timing.
Resolution procedures are specified in the contract and commonly reference the official NWS daily summary, fallback to a nearby approved station, or a formal dispute/adjustment process; review the event's resolution rules for the exact method.
Consider Chicago's March climatology and its high variability, recent trends in winter/spring temperatures, and how similar synoptic setups historically translated into daily highs; also monitor short-range model runs and observational trends in the days leading up to March 7.