| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° or below | 42% | 41¢ | 42¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 16% | 14¢ | 19¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 27% | 28¢ | 29¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 10% | 9¢ | 10¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 77° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain Chicago’s highest observed temperature on March 6, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature outcomes reflect weather risks relevant to energy, travel, and local planning. Traders use available forecasts and observational rules to form positions.
Chicago early-March weather can swing from sub-freezing to mild depending on the position of the jet stream and incoming air masses, so single-day highs are sensitive to synoptic-scale features. The market uses an official observational source for settlement and typically resolves after the National Weather Service posts the final daily temperature record. Historical variability on this date means traders should weigh both climatology and near-term forecasts.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which outcome will be true based on available forecasts, observations, and uncertainty; interpret them as live consensus signals, not guarantees. Settlement is determined by the official measurement method specified on the market page.
Settlement is based on the official highest hourly temperature reported for the Chicago observation station specified on the market page; the market follows the data source and station listed there (typically an NWS/NOAA-reporting station).
The market’s six outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature categories or discrete values defined on the event page; after the official highest temperature is determined for Mar 6, 2026, exactly one outcome — the one that contains that measured value — will be declared the winner.
The market close time is set by the platform and currently listed as TBD on the event page; settlement occurs after the official temperature is published and any required verification or adjustments by the designated data authority are complete — check the market page for final timelines.
Review multiyear historical highs and variability for early March from NOAA or local climate records, recent year-to-year anomalies, and climatological normals to understand baseline expectations; past dates illustrate that Chicago can experience a wide range of highs in early March.
Monitor NWS forecast discussions, short-range model runs (e.g., GFS, ECMWF), local airport observations, satellite and radar for cloud cover and frontal timing, and surface analyses for snow cover — these inputs drive day-of temperature outcomes and the official record used for settlement.