| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° or below | 24% | 24¢ | 26¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 30% | 27¢ | 30¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 31% | 30¢ | 32¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 9% | 9¢ | 10¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest temperature recorded in Chicago on March 5, 2026. It matters because it aggregates real‑time expectations about a specific daily weather outcome that can be influenced by short‑term forecasts and synoptic events.
Chicago temperatures in early March are often variable as the region transitions from winter to spring; outcomes can swing based on the timing of cold fronts, storm systems, and lake effects. This market settles to a single observed value for that date as defined by the event rules, so participants should review the official station and settlement window named on the platform.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders and update as new observations, model guidance, and forecasts arrive; they are best read as the market consensus at a moment in time rather than a deterministic forecast.
The event will settle to the highest temperature recorded according to the official observation source and measurement window specified in the event's rule text on the platform—check the event description for the designated station and exact settlement criteria.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the platform sets the official close time and whether trading continues into the observation window—refer to the event page for the final close policy before March 5.
The six outcomes correspond to discrete temperature ranges (bins) defined by the market; each outcome wins if the observed highest temperature falls within that outcome's range as specified in the rules.
Short‑range numerical weather models, National Weather Service updates, and mesoscale model runs (especially those produced in the 48–72 hours before the date) typically have the largest impact, along with any new observational data from radiosondes and surface stations.
The platform's settlement rules describe contingency procedures—commonly they defer to the official national weather service records or a designated backup station and may use verified post‑event quality‑controlled observations; consult the event's settlement rules for the exact procedure.