| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42° to 43° | 97% | 95¢ | 97¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| 39° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 4, 2026. The result matters for weather-sensitive planning (energy, travel, public health) and tests how collective expectations compare with official observations.
Early March in Chicago is a transitional month with large day-to-day swings driven by arriving cold fronts, occasional warm surges, and Great Lakes effects. Local factors such as lake breezes, urban heat island, and recent snow cover can strongly modulate daily maximums. Short-term synoptic forecasts in the days before the date typically dominate market movement.
Market prices represent the relative market view of which outcome bin will contain the realized maximum temperature; interpret them as market-implied relative likelihoods rather than fixed certainties.
The market's settlement will follow the specific data source named in the event rules; common choices are National Weather Service stations such as O'Hare (ORD) or Midway (MDW). If the event description does not name a source, consult the exchange's rulebook or settlement notes for the designated station or dataset.
That is defined by the market's governing rules; typically it refers to the local calendar day from 00:00 to 23:59 in the local time zone observed that date. Always check the event’s definitions to confirm the authoritative start/end times and time zone.
Official maximums are usually the highest air temperature recorded in a standard meteorological shelter at the designated station. The market's settlement rules will state whether values are taken to the nearest tenth, whole degree, or subject to another rounding convention—refer to those rules for the precise method.
This event currently lists 'Closes: TBD'; the exchange sets the trading close and settlement schedule and will publish those details on the market page. Settlement typically occurs after the designated data provider releases the official daily summary and any routine quality-control.
Use historical March variability and recent climatology as a baseline to understand what's typical, but weigh short-term deterministic forecasts heavily: synoptic setups, snow cover, and lake-and-cloud effects in the days leading up to March 4 often drive the realized maximum more than long-term averages.