| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded in Chicago on March 30, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against or speculating on late-March climatic conditions in the Midwest.
Chicago's weather in late March is notoriously volatile as the region transitions from winter to spring. Historical data shows significant variance during this period, with daily highs ranging from near-freezing to unseasonably warm depending on the movement of cold fronts and jet stream patterns. Meteorologists monitor these late-season shifts closely as they impact local energy consumption and agricultural planning.
Market prices reflect the collective anticipation of weather model consensus and historical climatic norms for the Chicago area. Participants use these outcomes to quantify the expected severity of late-winter temperature swings.
The market relies on the official daily high temperature recorded at Chicago O'Hare International Airport, as reported by the National Weather Service.
Low-pressure systems can rapidly alter temperatures; a passing warm front might spike temperatures during the day, while a cold front could cause an early-morning peak followed by a sharp decline.
No, this market specifically tracks the ambient air temperature recorded by standardized sensors, excluding wind chill or heat index calculations.
In the event of official data discrepancies, the market settles based on the corrected final records published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
March 30th represents the tail end of the meteorological winter/early spring transition, making it a pivotal date for observing seasonal warming trends in the Great Lakes region.