| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will record the highest air temperature in Chicago on March 29, 2026. It matters for weather risk assessment, short-term energy and retail planning, and for traders hedging weather-sensitive positions.
Chicago's day-to-day temperatures in late March can swing widely because of competing influences: lingering winter air masses, early-season warm surges, and lake-modified effects from Lake Michigan. Historical late-March records and recent seasonal trends provide context, but the specific outcome for March 29, 2026 will be determined by synoptic-scale systems and the exact observation location specified in the contract.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about which outcome is most likely, updating as new meteorological observations and model forecasts arrive. Treat prices as a dynamic consensus, not a guarantee; check the contract for exact resolution rules before trading.
The market will resolve according to the official source named in the contract's resolution clause; typically this is a National Weather Service or NOAA station listed on the market page. Always check the contract text to see the exact station and dataset used.
The contract defines the time window used for the calendar day; commonly markets use the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated reporting station. Verify the contract for any explicit timezone or window language, especially because daylight saving time is in effect in late March.
Units (Fahrenheit or Celsius) and any rounding or truncation rules are specified in the contract. If the contract does not state units, the market page or resolution clause will indicate the official reporting convention to be used for settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bin or label defined on the market page and in the contract. Review the market's outcome descriptions to see the exact numeric ranges or labels before placing any trade.
Resolution in cases of missing or disputed data follows the contract's contingency and dispute-resolution procedures, which may reference alternate official datasets (e.g., adjacent stations, NWS quality-controlled records) or an arbitration process. Check the contract for the specified fallback rules.