| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 28, 2026 will be. The outcome matters for weather-sensitive planning such as energy load, travel, outdoor events, and agricultural decisions.
Late March in Chicago is a highly variable period when cold air intrusions and early-season warm spells both occur. Lake Michigan, synoptic-scale storm tracks, and the position of the jet stream commonly drive large day-to-day swings in temperature. Ongoing climatic trends can shift the frequency of unusually warm or cool days, but short-term weather patterns dominate the day’s result.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations for which temperature outcome will occur and will change as forecasts, observations, and new information arrive. Treat prices as a real-time consensus signal of likely outcomes rather than a guaranteed prediction.
Resolution is based on the data source specified by the market; many Chicago temperature markets use an official NWS station (commonly the primary airport station). Check the Kalshi event rules or resolution notes for the exact station or dataset used.
Most weather markets use the local calendar date at the reporting station (local standard or daylight time as applicable). Confirm the exact timezone and cutoff in the market’s resolution rules, since the event page determines the authoritative definition.
Markets vary; resolution commonly uses the maximum reported air temperature from the official observing station’s routine records (which may be hourly maxima or the highest instantaneous observation reported). Consult the market’s resolution methodology to know which measurement is used.
Resolution typically cites official datasets such as National Weather Service observations, NOAA/NCEI daily summaries, or the designated airport METAR/automated station identified in the event rules. The market’s resolution text will list the primary data source.
Watch updates from short-range forecast models, local NWS forecasts and discussions, METAR surface observations from Chicago-area stations, frontal timing, and lake-breeze forecasts. Late changes in cloud cover, frontal passage timing, or wind direction often cause the largest revisions close to the target date.