| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest official temperature recorded in Chicago will be on March 27, 2026, letting traders express views on late‑March weather variability. Outcomes matter for short‑term hedging, event planning, and as a probe of regional springtime temperature swings.
Late March in Chicago is a transitional period when contrasts between lingering cold air masses and early spring warmth frequently produce large day‑to‑day temperature swings. Synoptic patterns (timing of cold fronts, strength of upper‑level ridges or troughs), lake‑effect moderation, and longer‑term warming trends all shape how warm any particular March day will be. Historical March records provide context, but each year's synoptic setup is usually the dominant factor for a single date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders given available forecasts, model guidance, and risk preferences and will update as new weather information arrives. Use prices as a real‑time summary of market sentiment, not as a fixed or official weather forecast.
The winning outcome is determined by the official temperature observation specified in the contract's settlement rules; the market page identifies the authoritative data source (typically the official National Weather Service observation for the designated Chicago reporting station).
The specific reporting station (for example, the exchange's designated official Chicago station) is defined in the contract text on the market page; check that field for the exact station name used for settlement.
The market's close time is listed on the exchange's market page; if the event shows 'Closes: TBD' the operator will publish a firm close time before trading begins or before the event resolves, so monitor the platform for updates.
Settlement and dispute procedures are specified in the contract rules; they typically reference the primary data source and include fallback procedures (such as using the next available valid observation or an authoritative reanalysis) if gaps occur—consult the market's official rule text for details.
In the days before March 27, follow short‑range model runs (updated model ensembles), forecast discussions from the National Weather Service, frontal timing, cloud/precipitation trends, and local lake conditions, as these items materially shift expected daytime maxima for Chicago.