| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Chicago on March 26, 2026; it matters for short-term planning, utilities, travel, and anyone tracking late-winter/early-spring weather swings in the city.
Late March in Chicago is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability driven by the clash of cold continental air and milder Pacific or Gulf air masses. Historical outcomes for specific March dates have included everything from near-winter cold snaps to unusually warm spells, and local factors such as the Great Lakes and the urban heat island can modulate observed highs.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of participants given current forecasts and information; they update as new model runs, observations, and reports arrive and are best interpreted as a continuously updated consensus rather than a single model output.
Resolution timing and the official data source are specified on the market page; such weather markets commonly reference National Weather Service daily observations for a designated Chicago station (e.g., O'Hare or Midway) or another clearly identified source—check the market’s resolution rules for the exact station and timing.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range for the highest observed temperature on March 26, 2026; the exact numeric boundaries and any rounding rules are listed in the market's outcome descriptions and determine which outcome is paid if the final reported temperature falls on an edge.
Follow the latest operational model runs and short-range forecasts, satellite and radar observations, and synoptic-scale updates—markets typically react to new deterministic and ensemble model output as well as real-time observations in the 48–72 hours leading up to the target date.
Yes; comparing recent climatology for late March, past March 26 records, and seasonal trends (including multiyear variability like ENSO or unusual Arctic patterns) provides context for how extreme or typical a given forecast would be for that date.
Markets resolve according to the posted resolution source and procedures; if official datasets are later revised or the listed station is changed, the market follows the exchange’s stated dispute and revision policies, which are detailed on the market page and in the platform's rulebook.