| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Chicago will be on March 25, 2026; it matters for traders who want to hedge or speculate on short-term weather outcomes that affect energy use, event planning, and local operations.
Late March in Chicago is a transition month with a wide range of possible conditions, from late-winter cold snaps to early-spring warmth driven by strong ridges. Short-term synoptic features (frontal passages, low- or high-pressure systems) and local effects (Lake Michigan, urban heat island) drive large day-to-day swings in temperature. Historical variability makes single-day temperature markets sensitive to updated forecasts and observational verification.
Market prices represent traders' collective expectations for the outcome and will move as new forecasts and observations arrive; check the event page and settlement rules to understand exactly what observation will determine the result.
The event page and settlement rules on KALSHI specify the official data source and station used for settlement; consult that information for the definitive source (platforms commonly use National Weather Service/NOAA station data for a named Chicago observation site).
Settlement typically occurs once the official daily maximum from the specified observation source is published; the exact timing depends on KALSHI's settlement procedures and the data provider, so check the event rules for the platform's stated settlement timeline.
Major model runs, changes in ensemble agreement, the arrival or delay of a front, and late adjustments to cloud, precipitation, or wind forecasts in the 48–120 hours before the date are the primary drivers of rapid price movement.
Lake Michigan tends to moderate temperatures near the shore; onshore or northwesterly winds keep lakeshore areas cooler, while inland and southwest portions of the metro often register the highest daytime temperatures when winds are offshore or southerly.
Look at historical daily maxima and the range of observed values for March 25 over multiple years, seasonal climate normals, and recent late-March trends; these provide context for how unusual a particular forecast would be and help assess forecast model signals.