| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 24, 2026 will be. It matters for traders and stakeholders who want to hedge or speculate on short-term weather outcomes and for understanding seasonal variability in the region.
Late March in Chicago is a transitional period: the city can experience anything from lingering winter-like conditions to early spring warmth depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Historical records for this date show substantial day-to-day variability, and broader drivers such as large-scale circulation patterns and recent seasonal trends influence the baseline expectation. Local factors like snow cover, lake influence, and urban heat effects also shape the realized maximum temperature.
Market odds aggregate traders' views about which temperature range will be the day's high and will change as forecasts and observations update. Treat prices as a real-time signal to be used alongside meteorological forecasts and the event's settlement rules.
The market's close time is listed on the trading platform (currently TBD); settlement occurs after the official daily observation for March 24, 2026 is published by the designated reporting authority, according to the event's published settlement timetable.
Settlement will use the official maximum air temperature reported by the NOAA/NWS-designated reporting station named in the contract (commonly the primary Chicago station such as O'Hare); check the event page for the exact named station.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific, mutually exclusive temperature range defined on the market page; settlement uses the reported maximum temperature and applies the contract's stated rounding or binning rules—consult the event rules for the exact cutoffs and rounding method.
If the primary observation is missing or corrected, the market's published dispute-resolution and backup-data procedures apply—typical remedies include using a backup official station or a quality-controlled dataset from the national archive, as specified in the event's settlement policy.
Consider late-March climatology that allows wide swings between cold and warm outcomes, recent model runs and their trends in the days before Mar 24, presence or absence of snow cover, expected cloud cover and frontal timing, and any forecasted lake-breeze or blocking patterns that could materially alter the day's maximum.