| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature reported for Chicago will be on March 23, 2026; it matters to traders, weather forecasters, and anyone with exposure to temperature-sensitive activities in the region.
Late March in Chicago can produce a wide range of outcomes, from lingering winter-like conditions to unseasonably warm days, driven by large-scale synoptic patterns. Recent decades have shown trends toward warmer average seasons, but single-day outcomes remain strongly controlled by the position of surface fronts, upper-level troughs and ridges, and local surface conditions.
Market prices aggregate available information — model forecasts, observations, and expert judgment — into a single updating signal; interpret prices as evolving consensus expectations rather than fixed truths, and consult the contract rules for how the market will be settled.
The contract will specify the official data source and observing station used to determine the highest reported temperature (for example, an NWS/NOAA official station such as an airport), so check the market's settlement rules to see the designated station and measurement protocol.
The posted closing time is shown on the market page (currently TBD); final settlement typically occurs only after the designated official observation for Mar 23 is publicly released and verified—consult the contract rules for the platform's specific closing and settlement procedures.
Chicago has multiple observing sites with different microclimates and exposure (for example, airport stations vs. city stations); which site the contract designates affects the recorded value, so review the instrument location, elevation, and station history in the contract details.
Model guidance typically gains skill as the event approaches: large-scale tendencies can be identified a week out, but most substantial changes occur within 3–5 days as shortwave features and surface fronts become better resolved; monitor ensemble spreads and late-model runs for shifts.
Key near-term indicators include evolving snow cover, timing of any frontal passages, cloud/precipitation forecasts for daytime hours, wind shifts that bring different air masses, and any model indications of mesoscale phenomena (e.g., strong low-level warm advection or nocturnal inversions).