| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Chicago will be on March 22, 2026, and matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and residents tracking late-winter/early-spring conditions.
Late March in Chicago is a highly variable time of year when intrusions of Arctic air can coexist with strong spring warm-ups; synoptic-scale patterns (ridges, troughs, frontal passages) and the seasonal cooling of Lake Michigan both shape day-to-day outcomes. The exact reading depends on which official observing station and measurement protocol the market uses, so consult the event description for the source used to settle the contract.
Market odds reflect collective expectations based on incoming forecasts and observations rather than fixed truth; they will move as new model runs, radar, and surface observations arrive. Use odds as a summary of sentiment and directional information while referencing the stated settlement rules on the event page.
The contract resolves to the official station(s) listed in the event description; that listing will specify the observing site (for example an NWS station) and the measurement protocol used to determine the daily maximum temperature—check the event page for the authoritative source.
Settlement timing and procedure are set by the platform and detailed on the event page; resolution commonly occurs after the specified observing agency posts the official daily maximum or climate summary for that date, so refer to the market's settlement rules for exact timing.
Traders commonly watch short- and medium-range numerical models (e.g., high-resolution hourly models and global ensemble/global deterministic models), NWS forecast discussions, surface obs and METARs, and local radar/satellite updates—each contributes to how expectations change as Mar 22 approaches.
In early spring the lake is often colder than the land, so onshore flow tends to cool lakeside locations and reduce the maximum temperature there, while offshore or inland locations can warm more; the lake effect depends on wind direction, wind speed, and timing of solar heating that day.
Historical records provide context about the range and variability experienced on that calendar date, which helps set a climatological baseline, but traders should prioritize current synoptic forecasts and near-term observations because year-to-year weather can deviate substantially from climatology.