| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Chicago on March 21, 2026. It matters because late-March temperatures can swing rapidly and influence spring energy demand, travel, and public health planning.
Chicago experiences large day-to-day variability in late March due to shifting storm tracks, Arctic intrusions, and the influence of Lake Michigan. Historical records show a wide spread between cold, snow-influenced days and early warm spells, so forecasts and model runs in the days before the date are especially important. The market uses a set of mutually exclusive temperature outcomes (six total) defined on the event page; settlement will follow the data source and procedures specified there.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated views of which temperature range is most likely given current observations and model forecasts; they move as new data and model runs arrive. Always check the event page for the official data source, measurement period, and settlement rules that determine the winning outcome.
Settlement is determined by the official observing station or dataset specified in the market rules on the event page (commonly the National Weather Service/NOAA official station for Chicago). Check the event's settlement source and exact station name on the market page to confirm.
The measurement period (for example, midnight-to-midnight local time) and the time zone used are defined in the market's settlement rules. Verify the market page for the exact local time boundaries that determine which observations apply to March 21, 2026.
The six outcomes are six mutually exclusive temperature ranges that cover all possible highs for the day. The precise numeric boundaries for each outcome are listed on the event page; consult that listing before trading or interpreting prices.
A strong southerly flow ahead of a frontal system, clear skies across the Chicago metro during peak daylight hours, limited snow cover, and warm advection aloft (as seen in model soundings) would favor higher maximum temperatures.
Low or zero volume indicates limited trading liquidity, so current prices may reflect few or no participants and can be more volatile or less representative of broad consensus. Monitor new trades, model updates, and official observations; consult the event rules for settlement details before relying on prices.