| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Chicago will be on March 20, 2026; it matters for short‑term planning that depends on temperature (energy demand, transport, outdoor events).
Late March in Chicago is a transitional period between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing quickly depending on the position of the jet stream and incoming fronts. Historical records show wide day‑to‑day variability at this time of year, driven by synoptic weather systems and local surface conditions.
Market odds reflect traders’ aggregated expectations based on available forecasts and observations and will adjust as new meteorological information arrives; use them alongside official weather forecasts and observations when assessing likely outcomes.
The resolving source is the official observing station and dataset named in the event's resolution rules—consult the event description for that source. The settled value will come from the authoritative archived observation for that station and date as specified by the market.
The market uses the local calendar day for Chicago: the 24‑hour period from 00:00 to 24:00 local time on March 20, 2026. Note that March 20, 2026 falls after the spring daylight‑saving change, so times are local Chicago time (as specified in the event rules).
The specific observing station or official dataset to be used for resolution is listed in the event's resolution specification on the platform; check that field to see whether the market references a particular NWS/airport station or another official instrument.
The market closing time is given on the event page (currently TBD if not listed). Resolution will occur after the official daily observations for March 20 are available and any required verification or dispute window in the platform’s rules has passed—this can be hours to a few days depending on the platform's processes.
Watch forecast model trends for frontal timing and thermal advection, high‑resolution short‑range models (e.g., convective‑allowing runs) for cloud/precip coverage, surface analyses for snow or ice cover, and updates to expected wind direction/speed that influence mixing into the observing site.