| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 2, 2026 will be; it matters for traders and analysts who use weather outcomes to hedge risk, test forecast skill, or express views on short-term climate variability.
Chicago early-March temperatures can swing widely because of competing influences: late-winter cold-air outbreaks, early-spring warm surges, and moderation from Lake Michigan. Historical records and seasonal climatology set expectations, but day-to-day synoptic evolution often dominates the realized high. The market aggregates traders' information and evolving forecast model output into a single, continuously updated signal.
Market odds reflect the aggregated beliefs of participants about which temperature range will be observed; treat them as a summary of available information (models, observations, and participant views) that can change rapidly as forecasts and observations update.
The listed close is TBD; settlement will occur after the official highest temperature for March 2, 2026 is established according to the market's rules and the designated observation source—check the market rules page for the exact settlement timing and any waiting period for data quality control.
Outcomes correspond to the discrete temperature categories or ranges specified on the market page (there are six outcomes); each outcome wins if the reported highest temperature for the measurement location falls within that range per the market's official measurement rules.
The market will use the specific official source named in its rulebook—typically an official meteorological station or NWS/NOAA dataset for Chicago; consult the market rules to confirm the exact station or dataset used for settlement.
Price moves are driven by updated weather-model runs (deterministic and ensemble forecasts), observed temperature trends in the days before the event, changes in frontal timing or cloud cover forecasts, and new observational data (e.g., nearby temperature observations or satellite/remote-sensing updates).
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and context for how unusual a given outcome would be, but because synoptic weather patterns on the specific day usually dominate, use climatology together with current model guidance and recent observations rather than relying on long-term averages alone.