| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Chicago on March 19, 2026 will be. It matters for participants tracking weather risk, seasonal forecasting, and short-term climate variability in the Chicago area.
Chicago experiences wide day-to-day temperature swings in late winter and early spring due to shifting air masses and Great Lakes influences; single‑day highs can be driven by transient fronts, southerly surges, or Arctic intrusions. Long‑term warming trends raise baseline temperatures, but the realized high on a specific date is dominated by short‑term synoptic weather patterns and local effects like lake breezes and urban heat. The market’s settlement will rely on an official observational source specified in the contract.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature outcome will be observed, incorporating current forecasts, observations, and trader information; they update as new forecasts and data arrive. Use prices as a snapshot of market consensus, not as fixed probabilities over time.
Settlement uses the maximum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day at the official observation site and height specified in the contract; measurements follow the conventions of the designated meteorological agency—consult the event’s settlement clause for exact definitions.
The event description or settlement rules list the exact station used (for example, a National Weather Service station at a Chicago airport or another official site); check the market page to see that specified source before trading.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature value or range shown on the event page; outcome labels define the exact boundaries used for settlement, so review those labels to understand which observed temperatures fall into each bin.
The close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); settlement typically occurs after the official observations for March 19 are published—often within a short window after the day ends—according to the platform’s settlement schedule, so check the event rules for exact timing.
Historical same‑date records provide context on typical variability and extremes and can help calibrate expectations, but day‑to‑day weather depends primarily on the synoptic situation immediately preceding the date, so combine historical context with up‑to‑date forecast model outputs.