| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete highest temperature category Chicago will record on March 18, 2026; it matters for individuals and businesses exposed to weather risk (energy, travel, outdoor events).
Late winter/early spring in Chicago is highly variable: strong warm-ups and late-season cold snaps are both common, and Lake Michigan often modulates temperatures near the lakeshore. Historical records and seasonal climatology set context, but day-to-day outcomes are driven by synoptic-scale systems and local surface conditions.
Market prices reflect participants' collective expectations about which temperature outcome is most likely given available forecasts and information; they update as model runs, observations, and local conditions change.
The settlement will use the official observing metric specified in the market contract — typically the daily maximum temperature as recorded at the designated official station (the contract should name the station and authoritative data source). Check the market's rules for the precise instrument/source used for settlement.
If a contract does not name a station, most weather-settled markets default to an authoritative National Weather Service station or another clearly identified official dataset; the market's settlement clause will state the chosen fallback — always confirm on the event page to know which site will be authoritative.
Day boundaries are by local Chicago time (Central Time) as defined in the contract: the highest temperature is the maximum observed within the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59:59 local time) unless the market specifies a different observation window — check the event page for the exact definition and note that Daylight Saving Time rules can affect local offsets.
Settlement follows the single authoritative station or data source named in the contract; if multiple stations are referenced, the contract will specify a reconciliation rule. If measurement disputes arise, the market's published adjudication procedure and the named data provider (e.g., NWS) determine the official value.
Closing and settlement times are determined by the market's rules: markets commonly close before the start of the observation day and settle after the official data release for that date. Check the event page for the precise close time (listed as TBD here) and the settlement policy to know when the final result will be published.