| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23° to 24° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25° to 26° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest official air temperature recorded in Chicago will be on March 17, 2026. It matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking seasonal temperature variability or short-term climate signals.
Chicago’s weather in mid-March is highly variable: some years still behave like winter with cold fronts and snow, while others show early spring warmth driven by southerly air masses. Long‑term warming trends raise the baseline for seasonal temperatures, but any single day is determined by short‑term synoptic and local factors.
Market odds represent the collective expectation of traders given available forecasts and information and will update as new model runs and observations arrive. They are a probabilistic signal, not a guarantee of the realized temperature.
The event page lists the close time as TBD; final determination will follow the platform’s published resolution timeline and the official observation window for March 17, 2026. Check the Kalshi event page for the exact close and resolution times once posted.
The market will be resolved according to the authoritative data source specified on the event page and Kalshi’s resolution rules. If the event description does not name the station or dataset, consult the event’s detailed rules or Kalshi support for the designated official source.
Resolution will follow the date and time definitions stated in the event’s rules; typically the measurement is for the calendar date in Chicago local time (Central Time, taking into account daylight saving rules in effect on that date). Confirm the exact time window on the event page.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model runs, surface and upper‑air charts, frontal timing, lake‑effect forecasts, hourly temperature trends from local stations, and updates from the National Weather Service for Chicago. Sudden shifts in any of these can materially change expectations.
Settlement follows the event’s contingency and dispute rules as set by the platform; typically an explicitly named official station or dataset is used, and if that data is unavailable the platform’s resolution policy explains fallback procedures and arbitration. Contact Kalshi support or consult the event rules for those procedures.