| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Chicago on March 16, 2026 will be. It matters to traders and to weather-sensitive users (energy, travel, agriculture) because single-day temperature extremes can have operational and economic impacts.
Late winter/early spring in Chicago is highly variable: the city can experience anything from near-winter cold to an abrupt warm surge in a single week. Lake Michigan, transient mid-latitude cyclones, and the timing of any cold frontal passages all contribute to wide swings on a March day like the 16th.
Market odds summarize the collective expectations of participants and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use them as a real-time synthesis of forecast uncertainty rather than as a guarantee of a specific outcome.
The contract will be resolved according to the specific observation source and procedure defined on the market's rules page; that is typically an official National Weather Service (or designated station) daily maximum for the station named in the contract—check the contract text for the exact station and dataset used.
Most contracts use the local calendar day from 00:00 to 23:59 local time; March 16, 2026 falls during Daylight Saving Time (CDT, UTC−5), but you should confirm the precise measurement window in the market's resolution rules.
Lake Michigan often moderates temperatures near the lakeshore—onshore winds can suppress daytime highs while offshore winds can allow warmer inland air to dominate; urban heat island effects can raise temperatures near central-city stations compared with rural surroundings.
Yes—recent snowfall or saturated ground reduces daytime heating by increasing albedo and latent heat losses, which can lower peak temperatures compared with snow-free conditions given the same air mass.
Resolution follows the contract's specified station or dataset; if the contract references a single official station, that station's reported daily maximum determines the outcome. Always consult the market's resolution clause to know which station or reporting office will be authoritative.