| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Chicago will be on March 15, 2026. It matters for people and businesses that make weather-sensitive decisions and for anyone tracking short-term climate variability.
Mid‑March in Chicago sits in a transition season with large day‑to‑day swings driven by the passage of synoptic fronts, lake influences, and occasional Arctic intrusions; some years see near‑winter readings while others are already mild. Historical records show wide variability on this date, so weather patterns in the days leading up to March 15 typically determine whether the day will be unusually warm or cold.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which temperature range will be the maximum on that date; higher market support for an outcome indicates stronger market expectation but is not a fixed forecast. Use the market as a summary of available information and update expectations as new meteorological data arrive.
The contract will specify the official observing station used for settlement; typically this is the National Weather Service‑designated climate station for Chicago (such as the primary NWS station at the airport), so check the market's settlement rules to see which station is authoritative.
Highest temperature means the maximum air temperature recorded at the official station during the local civil date of March 15 (00:00 through 23:59 local time) as reported or finalized by the authoritative observing agency; measurement follows standard meteorological instrumentation and averaging/rounding conventions noted in the settlement terms.
Settlement procedures for data gaps or instrument failures are specified in the contract and commonly include using alternate nearby official stations, quality‑controlled hourly data, or post‑event official corrections from the reporting agency; consult the market's settlement rules for the exact fallback hierarchy.
Large‑scale tendencies can be identified a week out, but precise daily maximums usually become much more reliable within the 48–72 hour window as high‑resolution models and observations converge; uncertainty remains higher at longer lead times.
Long‑term warming shifts the baseline distribution so warm outcomes are relatively more plausible than decades ago, but single‑day results are still dominated by short‑term weather patterns; consider both climate context and near‑term meteorology when evaluating the market.