| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Chicago on March 14, 2026 will be. It matters because daily temperature extremes affect energy use, transportation planning, public health, and local economic activity.
Chicago in mid‑March sits in a volatile transition season: temperatures can swing from below freezing to unseasonably warm depending on the jet stream position, incoming air masses, and lake influence. Traders and forecasters use model guidance, surface observations, and real‑time updates because March weather often exhibits large day‑to‑day variability.
Market prices summarize the crowd’s view about which temperature outcome is most likely; interpret them as a snapshot of consensus informed by forecasts and observations rather than a deterministic prediction. Prices will move as new model runs, observations, and local conditions arrive.
The event’s settlement rules list the exact station and source the platform will use (commonly an official NWS station such as the designated Chicago observation site). Check the event page for the specified station and dataset that will determine settlement.
Settlement typically uses the official calendar date in local time at the designated observation site (00:00 to 23:59 local time) and the daily maximum reported by that station or national weather service product. Confirm the exact time window in the event rules.
The platform’s settlement policy covers missing or invalid data. Options commonly include using an alternate nearby official station, using a verified substitute product from the national weather service, or applying the platform’s contingency rules; consult the event’s settlement section for the definitive procedure.
Monitor medium‑range model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS), high‑resolution convection‑allowing models for day‑of details, surface observations, satellite imagery, and National Weather Service forecast discussions—especially the timing of fronts and ensemble spread that indicate forecast confidence.
Expectations can change substantially in that window: small shifts in frontal timing, cloud cover, precipitation type, or residual snowpack can move the daily maximum noticeably. Markets frequently update as model runs and observations refine those short‑range details.