| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will correspond to the highest observed temperature in Chicago on March 13, 2026. It matters because the result summarizes short‑term weather expectations for a major city and is sensitive to rapidly changing forecasts and observations.
March in Chicago is a highly variable month when winter patterns can still bring cold air but spring intrusions can produce unseasonably mild days; that variability makes single‑day temperature markets particularly responsive to evolving forecasts. Historical records and the local influence of Lake Michigan mean that small shifts in synoptic pattern or storm timing can materially change the highest temperature observed on a given day.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of which discrete temperature outcome will occur and will move as new model runs, observations, and official forecasts become available. Treat the odds as a live summary of current information rather than a fixed climatological statement.
The six outcomes correspond to discrete temperature ranges or specific reported temperature values for the highest observed temperature in Chicago on March 13, 2026; the event description on the market page lists the exact bins or values and the settlement rules.
The contract’s settlement source defines the official data (for example, an NWS station such as the designated Chicago official station); check the event page for the named observation site and any note about time stamps or quality control.
The market close time and settlement schedule are specified on the event page; if the close is listed as TBD, the platform will announce the trading cutoff and the settlement timing once finalized, and settlement will follow the published observation and verification window.
A forecast shift toward stronger daytime warm air advection, clearing skies during the daytime, a delayed frontal passage, or persistent southerly flow off the interior continent would push the highest temperature upward.
Monitor updated model runs and short‑range forecasts from the National Weather Service, local forecast discussions for Chicago, real‑time observations from the settlement station, and platform announcements on the event page; these information sources typically drive market adjustments.