| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or below | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $207K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $132K | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $61K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will be the highest recorded in Chicago on March 11, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature outcomes reflect both predictable seasonal patterns and rapid changes in weather, and they are settled to an official observational record.
Chicago temperatures in early March are highly variable: the city can still experience winterlike air masses or early spring warmth depending on the position of the jet stream and surface fronts. Prediction markets like this combine many traders' expectations and respond quickly to updated forecasts, model runs, and observations leading up to the date.
Market odds indicate the crowd’s evolving expectation for which outcome will be realized; treat them as a summary of current information rather than a fixed truth. Use them alongside official meteorological forecasts and the contract’s settlement rules when forming a view.
The market close time is listed on the trading platform (currently marked TBD); the contract will also specify the measurement window—typically the local Chicago calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) for the designated observing station. Check the platform’s contract page for the precise close and settlement window.
The contract text names the official data source and station(s) used for settlement; common sources are NWS/NOAA surface observations (METAR/synoptic) for Chicago-area stations such as O'Hare or Midway, but you must confirm the specific station and dataset listed in this market’s terms.
Each outcome corresponds to a temperature range or exact value as printed on the market page; the outcome that matches the final official highest temperature—after any contract-specified rounding or truncation—will pay out. Read the outcome labels and the settlement rules in the contract to see inclusion/exclusion at range boundaries.
Settlement procedures for missing, delayed, or revised data are set in the market’s contract and typically include specified fallback sources (e.g., nearby official stations or final archived datasets). Refer to the contract’s contingency and revision clauses for the exact hierarchy and timing of any delayed settlement.
Early March in Chicago is a transitional period with substantial year-to-year variability: some years remain near winter norms while others see early warming. For context, consult long-term climate normals and recent March 11 observations from NOAA or local climate records to understand the typical range and recent trends prior to this market’s date.