| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded in Chicago on April 7, 2026. It serves as a data-driven barometer for regional meteorological trends and seasonal climate variability.
Chicago’s spring weather is notoriously volatile, often influenced by the transition from lingering winter air masses to early spring warmth. Historical data for early April in Chicago shows a wide variance in temperature, ranging from chilly mornings to unseasonably warm afternoons depending on local wind patterns and cloud cover.
Market prices represent the collective expectation for where the daily high will fall, reflecting the consensus of historical averages adjusted for long-term climate warming trends.
The official daily high temperature is typically derived from data provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) as recorded at Chicago's primary reporting station, usually O'Hare International Airport.
No, the high temperature is the maximum value reached at any point within the 24-hour calendar day of April 7, 2026.
The lake often acts as a thermal regulator; if wind blows off the cold water in early April, it can significantly suppress daily high temperatures in Chicago compared to inland areas.
The market settles based on the official recorded maximum temperature, regardless of whether the weather is considered standard or caused by an anomalous extreme event.
This market settles based on the actual, official measurement recorded after the date has passed.