| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market allows participants to predict the daily maximum temperature recorded in Chicago on April 6, 2026. It serves as a derivative instrument for hedging or speculating on Midwestern spring weather patterns.
Chicago’s climate in early April is historically volatile, often transitioning between lingering winter chill and early spring warmth. Meteorological data from O'Hare International Airport typically serves as the official reference point for such observations. Regional temperature fluctuations are frequently influenced by complex interactions between air masses moving across Lake Michigan.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of future weather outcomes, reflecting the current consensus of meteorological models and historical climate averages.
Typically, the official record is pulled from the primary National Weather Service reporting station at Chicago O'Hare International Airport.
The market will settle based on the official, verified temperature reading recorded by the designated weather authority for that date.
The 'lake effect' can significantly moderate temperatures near the shoreline compared to inland areas, which may cause discrepancies between localized personal observations and the official airport reading.
No, this market tracks the actual air temperature, not the 'feels like' or wind chill index.
Early April in Chicago sees a wide range of outcomes, generally spanning from freezing conditions to unseasonably warm afternoons; checking long-term climate normals for April 6th is recommended.