| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded in Chicago on April 3, 2026. It serves as a derivative instrument for participants to hedge against or speculate on meteorological volatility in the Midwest.
Chicago's climate in early April is historically transitionary, characterized by high variability as the region shifts from late winter to early spring. Data from the National Weather Service (NWS) typically uses O'Hare International Airport as the official reporting station for city-wide climate records. Predicting exact temperatures this far in advance requires analyzing long-term climatological averages alongside emerging seasonal patterns.
The market prices reflect the aggregate expectation of traders regarding the likelihood of specific temperature ranges based on historical weather data and medium-range forecast models.
The market utilizes the official daily high temperature recorded by the National Weather Service at Chicago O'Hare International Airport.
The market rules typically follow standard rounding procedures defined in the contract specifications, usually aligning with official NWS reporting increments.
April weather in Chicago is notoriously volatile; early spring is often defined by the rapid movement of air masses, making it difficult to predict temperature spikes or drops weeks or months in advance.
No, this market tracks the actual air temperature recorded by standardized equipment, not heat index or wind chill factors.
The official daily weather reports published by the National Weather Service are the definitive source for determining the closing temperature.