| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market allows participants to predict the maximum temperature recorded in Chicago on April 2, 2026. These outcomes provide a data-driven look at regional climate variations during the transition from early spring.
Chicago's weather in early April is notoriously volatile, as the region experiences fluctuating air masses between lingering winter cold and early spring warmth. Historical data from the National Weather Service for O'Hare International Airport serves as the official reference point for temperature verification. Investors must consider seasonal climate trends, including the impact of El Niño or La Niña cycles on Midwest temperature patterns.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of meteorological conditions, with higher prices for specific ranges indicating a market consensus that the temperature will fall within those bounds.
The official record is the daily maximum temperature reported by the National Weather Service at Chicago O'Hare International Airport.
It is the peak temperature reached during the 24-hour period of April 2, 2026, as recorded in the official daily climate report.
Chicago's proximity to Lake Michigan and its location in the path of major storm tracks often lead to rapid temperature swings and unpredictable transitions between seasons.
In the event of an official station outage, the data provider typically relies on secondary official reporting or the nearest certified meteorological station to determine the final value.
No, the market strictly tracks the single highest temperature recorded at any point during the day, not the mean or average.