| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 7% | 2¢ | 8¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 29% | 27¢ | 45¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 51% | 35¢ | 51¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Boston on March 9, 2026 will be. It matters to traders and hedgers who follow short-term weather risk and to anyone monitoring near-term climate variability in the region.
March is a transitional month in New England, so daily temperatures can swing widely depending on the passage of cold fronts, coastal storms, or early warm spells. Long-term warming trends have altered seasonal baselines, but day-to-day outcomes are still dominated by synoptic-scale weather patterns and local influences like ocean proximity and urban effects.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which temperature range will occur; they update as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Prices are an expression of belief, not a guarantee of the eventual recorded value.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature ranges or buckets specified by the contract; each tradeable outcome pays out only if the highest recorded temperature falls into that bucket. See the event page for the exact bucket boundaries.
Settlement follows the contract's definition of highest temperature, which will cite a specific data source and measurement method (for example, the maximum observed air temperature at a named official station over a defined period). Always check the contract’s settlement definition to know which measurement counts.
The event page specifies the official reporting source used for settlement. Exchanges commonly reference an NWS/NOAA station or another named official observational dataset; consult the contract details to identify the exact station and dataset.
The closing time is determined by the exchange and is listed on the event page (currently TBD). Typically trading closes before or at the start of the observation period so settlement relies only on independently recorded observations.
Settlement procedures for missing or anomalous data are governed by the contract rules; options include using an alternate nearby station, applying a specified interpolation method, or following exchange dispute resolution procedures. Review the event’s settlement terms for the precise protocol.