| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Boston on March 8, 2026; it matters for planning (travel, energy demand, outdoor events) and reflects short‑term weather risk. Collective forecasts can provide a real‑time signal about expected conditions for that specific date.
Early March in Boston sits in a transition season where day‑to‑day temperatures can swing between winterlike cold and unseasonably warm conditions; synoptic patterns such as coastal storms or strong ridging can produce large departures from typical values. Historical records and long‑term warming trends increase the chance of unusually warm days, but local factors like sea surface temperatures and recent snowfall still strongly modulate the actual daily high.
Market prices represent the aggregated views of traders and the latest meteorological information, not guarantees; they update as new model runs and observations arrive. Use prices as a complement to official forecasts rather than a substitute for them.
Markets typically rely on the official National Weather Service observing site for Boston (commonly the Logan Airport station) but the exact station or dataset is specified in the market rules—check the event's official documentation to confirm the source.
It generally means the maximum air temperature recorded at the specified official observing site between 00:00 and 23:59 local time on March 8, 2026, measured by standard meteorological instrumentation; consult the event rules for any deviations.
This event's close time is listed as TBD; the platform will publish the official trading cutoff and any changes in the event's timeline—monitor the market page or platform announcements for the confirmed close.
Price movements typically respond to updated NWS forecasts, model runs (global and mesoscale models and their ensembles), satellite and radar observations, surface station reports, and any new information about storm timing or temperature advection affecting New England.
Most markets follow contingency rules that reference alternate official datasets or post‑event determinations by the National Weather Service; the specific fallback procedure is detailed in the event's rules, so review those provisions for this market.