| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 89% | 79¢ | 89¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 44° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 7% | 6¢ | 20¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 8% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bracket will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Boston on March 7, 2026; outcomes correspond to distinct temperature ranges. It matters because temperature extremes on a given day affect energy use, transportation, public health planning, and short-term weather risk assessments.
March in Boston is a highly variable month: the region can see late-winter cold snaps, nor'easters, or warm spells driven by transient warm fronts. Seasonal transition means small timing differences in frontal passages, cloud cover, and sea-breezes can produce very different daily maxima. The market aggregates trader expectations about those meteorological conditions for the specific date.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature outcome will be observed on the settlement date and should be used alongside official forecasts and model guidance. For settlement, the market uses the official source and station specified in the contract rather than individual spot readings.
The winning outcome is determined by the official highest temperature value published by the designated data source for that calendar date at the contract-specified reporting station; the platform then maps that published value to the market's outcome bins according to the contract's settlement rules.
The contract specifies the official reporting station and time zone used for settlement — commonly the National Weather Service/NOAA station for Boston (Logan) and local Boston (Eastern) date — so check the market's contract terms to confirm the exact station and time conventions.
The listed close time on the market page determines when trading stops (currently shown as TBD); settlement occurs after the designated official data for March 7 are published by the data provider, following the platform's stated settlement timeline in the contract.
Settlement follows the reporting and rounding conventions of the named official source and any tie-breaking or ambiguity rules laid out in the contract; if questions remain, consult the market's resolution policy on the platform for specifics.
Monitor NWP model runs (GFS, ECMWF), NWS forecast discussions for Boston, real-time observations from the contract station, incoming satellite and radar for cloud/precip trends, and coastal guidance for onshore flow and sea-breeze timing — updates to these sources can materially change expected daytime maximums.