| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 9% | 7¢ | 9¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 45% | 45¢ | 46¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 43% | 39¢ | 44¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 31° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $865 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will represent the highest observed air temperature in Boston on March 6, 2026. It matters to traders and weather watchers because it aggregates expectations about a specific, time‑bounded weather outcome in a city with volatile early‑March weather.
Early March in Boston sits in a transitional season where either late‑winter storms or early spring warmth can dominate; synoptic patterns (cold highs, warm fronts, coastal lows) drive large day‑to‑day swings. Urban measurement location, recent snow cover, and sea‑surface temperatures near the coast all affect the realized reading; longer‑term warming changes the baseline but not short‑term variability.
Market prices are an aggregate of participants' expectations about which temperature bin will be realized and update as new model runs and observations arrive. Use prices as a real‑time signal of consensus, remembering they can move quickly as forecasts converge or diverge.
Settlement will use the official reporting station and data source specified in the contract terms; typically this is the National Weather Service/NOAA observation for the designated Boston climate station and the highest hourly or instantaneous reported air temperature during the local calendar day, as defined in the market rules.
Settlement happens after the official daily observations for March 6 are published and verified according to the contract's settlement schedule; check the market page or contract text for the precise post‑event settlement timing.
The six outcomes correspond to discrete temperature bins defined in the market contract; the exact numeric cutoffs for each bin are listed on the market page and in the contract specification—consult those documents for the precise ranges.
The contract settles to the numeric highest temperature value reported by the designated official source; if multiple timestamps record the same numeric maximum, that numeric value is the settled outcome and is mapped to the corresponding outcome bin per the contract rules.
Monitor ensemble and deterministic model runs (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), surface observations (snow cover and temperature trends), satellite/radar for frontal timing, and official NWS forecast updates for Boston—changes in front timing or storm track in the 48–72 hour window typically have the largest impact.