| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° to 37° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 66% | 71¢ | 75¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 24% | 19¢ | 32¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 33° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Boston on March 5, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, transportation, and local weather-sensitive activity.
Boston in early March sits in a transitional season where Atlantic influence, lingering snow cover, and late-season storm tracks can produce rapid swings between cold and unseasonably warm conditions. Year-to-year variability is high, and broader climate trends have shifted seasonal averages upward, making warm anomalies more plausible than in past decades.
Market odds summarize collective trader beliefs about which temperature range will be the maximum that day; interpret them as real-time market consensus rather than immutable forecasts. For official settlement, always consult the event’s published settlement source and rules on the platform.
The event will settle to the official measurement specified in the market’s settlement rules; platforms commonly use an official hourly or daily maximum from a designated observing station (check the event page for the named station and dataset used for settlement).
The platform’s event rules identify the specific station or dataset used to settle this market; consult the market’s rules on KALSHI for the exact station (for example, an official NWS station) and any fallback procedures.
The market’s close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); platforms often close markets shortly before the settlement window begins to prevent trading on finalized observations—check KALSHI for updates to the close schedule.
The six outcomes correspond to preset temperature ranges shown on the event page; review those labeled bins before trading so you understand which range constitutes a win for a given observed maximum.
The market will follow its published tie-breaker and revision rules: typically the platform uses the official archived observation and any specified revision policy, and may apply fallback stations or adjudication procedures if the primary data are compromised—see the event’s rule text for details.