| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or below | 97% | 96¢ | 98¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 2% | 2¢ | 4¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bracket will be the highest recorded in Boston on March 3, 2026; it matters because daily maximum temperatures affect transport, infrastructure, energy demand, and short-term weather risk planning.
Early March in Boston is a highly variable time of year when Arctic air outbreaks, coastal storms, and moderating Atlantic air masses can all produce very different maximum temperatures. Long-term warming trends shift the baseline climate upward, but day-to-day weather patterns and the chosen observing station determine the actual recorded high.
Market prices/odds aggregate traders' views about the most likely temperature outcome given current information; they move as new forecasts, observations, and model runs arrive and should be read as a summary of collective expectations rather than a precise deterministic forecast.
Settlement should follow the market's official rules; if the event page does not specify, marketplace practice is to use an official National Weather Service or NOAA observing station for Boston—check the event's settlement reference to confirm the exact station and dataset.
Each outcome corresponds to a non-overlapping temperature bracket listed on the event page; those brackets are the mutually exclusive ranges used for settlement, so verify the exact numeric boundaries on the market page before trading.
Most events use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local standard time) at the designated observing station, but you should confirm the market's settlement window in the event rules in case a different definition is specified.
Settlement depends on the official data release schedule; markets typically wait for the authoritative daily summary from the designated observing agency, which may take hours to a few days—refer to the event's settlement policy for the exact processing timeline.
Use climatological normals and past March 3 records to provide context for whether a given bracket is unusual, but combine that with current model forecasts, snow cover, and synoptic trends because daily weather variability often dominates single-day outcomes.