| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several predefined outcome bins will contain the highest air temperature observed in Boston on March 28, 2026. It matters for traders and weather-interested users who want to express views or hedge around a one-day temperature outcome in a major U.S. city.
Late March is a transitional month in New England, so outcomes can swing between cool, seasonable, or unseasonably warm depending on synoptic-scale weather patterns. Coastal influence, ocean temperatures, frontal passages, and episodic storms (including nor'easters) all commonly drive large day-to-day temperature swings in the Boston area.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of which temperature range is most likely to contain the day's maximum; they will move as forecasts, observations, and news arrive. Always check the market's posted resolution rules to understand exactly how the winning outcome will be determined.
The event header currently shows the close time as TBD; the platform will publish a specific trading close timestamp on the market page — check there for the authoritative close time.
Resolution will follow the market's specific rules listed on the event page; if the event does not name a source, markets commonly rely on official NWS/NOAA observations for the Boston area (for example, the designated Boston observing station) — confirm the exact source in the event's resolution text.
Most temperature-settlement events use the local calendar day at the chosen observation site (00:00–23:59 local time), accounting for daylight saving as applicable; verify the market's resolution language for the definitive timing rule.
The market's resolution policy should specify fallbacks; typical approaches are to use the data provider's final quality-controlled dataset, use an alternate nearby official station, or, in rare cases, cancel/void the market — check the event rules for the prescribed procedure.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model runs (e.g., ECMWF/GFS ensembles), frontal timing, surface pressure trends, satellite/radar for cloud and precipitation evolution, and National Weather Service updates for Boston — these will materially affect whether the day trends cooler or warmer.