| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six predefined outcome ranges will contain the highest air temperature recorded in Boston on March 27, 2026. It matters for participants who want to express views or hedge weather-sensitive risk around a single calendar day in a coastal New England city.
Boston's late-March temperatures can swing widely because the city sits near the Atlantic: cold Canadian air intrusions, developing spring warmth, or maritime moderation are all plausible. Long-term warming shifts the distribution toward milder extremes, but the realized daily maximum is driven primarily by the short-term synoptic and mesoscale weather pattern on that date.
Market odds are a dynamic summary of trader expectations and available forecast information for that specific date and station; they update as new model runs, observations, or news arrive and should be interpreted as the market's collective forecast rather than a guarantee.
Settlement typically uses the official daily maximum air temperature reported by the primary NOAA/NWS observing station for Boston (commonly the ASOS at Boston Logan International Airport) for the local calendar date 00:00–23:59; the market's contract terms specify the exact station and data source, and those terms govern final settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined, mutually exclusive temperature range (bins) that together cover all possible values; consult the market page or contract rules for the exact numeric bin edges that determine which bin contains the day's maximum.
The stated closing time is TBD on the event page; final settlement will occur after the official daily temperature for March 27 is published and any standard quality-control or data-validation processes are completed, per the market's settlement procedures.
Key short-term drivers include the timing of a frontal passage, onset or suppression of a sea breeze, cloud-cover changes (rapid clearing or thickening), and any precipitation; small shifts in timing of those features, especially during peak daytime heating, can shift the max into a neighboring bin.
The contract's contingency rules govern such cases: markets typically use an alternate official station, nearby quality-controlled datasets, or an authoritative reanalysis from the relevant meteorological agency; the market operator will publish the chosen data source and any adjudication steps.