| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to forecast the highest air temperature recorded in Boston on March 26, 2026. It matters because same-day temperature extremes affect energy demand, transportation, and public events, and the market aggregates diverse forecast information into a single signal.
Late March in New England is a transitional period with high day-to-day variability driven by the jet stream, coastal storms, and occasional early-season warmth. Historical records and climatology provide a baseline, but synoptic-scale setup and the timing of fronts produce most of the deviation from that baseline. Market participants will be balancing short-range model guidance, observations, and local microclimate effects.
Market prices reflect the collective view of which outcome is most likely given available forecasts and observations; they are an information aggregation tool rather than definitive forecasts. Always consult the market's settlement rules to understand exactly how outcomes are defined and recorded.
The market will be settled according to the event's official settlement rules; those rules specify the authoritative data source (for example, an NWS reporting station or specified METAR). Check the event page for the named station or dataset used for verification.
The applicable time window (for example, the local calendar day or a specific UTC interval) is defined in the market's settlement terms. Consult the event page to confirm whether the measurement is local time 00:00–23:59, METAR daily max, or another defined interval.
The market contains six mutually exclusive outcomes that correspond to the labeled temperature categories or discrete values shown on the event page. Review the outcome labels there to see the exact ranges or values used for settlement.
The market's close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD if not yet set). Settlement occurs after the official observation for March 26, 2026 is available and verified according to the market's posted settlement procedures; check the event page for timing and any verification delays.
Traders commonly monitor NWS forecasts and discussions, METAR observations from Boston-area stations (e.g., Logan), short-range high-resolution model runs and ensembles (for frontal timing and cloud cover), satellite and radar for evolving cloud/precipitation, and local station observations for last-mile microclimate signals.