| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature measured in Boston will be on March 25, 2026; it matters because short-term temperature outcomes affect energy demand, public health, and local weather-sensitive decisions.
Boston's late-March temperatures can swing widely from wintry conditions to early spring warmth due to the clash of continental cold air and maritime influences from the Atlantic. Seasonal climate trends, including variability from year to year and long-term warming, shape the baseline around which day-to-day weather systems produce the realized temperature.
Market prices aggregate traders' views based on model forecasts, recent observations, and risk sentiment; they are a dynamic consensus signal of which temperature range market participants expect for that specific date and location.
The contract’s settlement will use the official data source specified on the market page—commonly an official NOAA/NWS daily summary from a recognized station (for example, the Logan Airport ASOS) or another named observing network; always check the market contract for the exact source.
The market will follow the time convention defined in its contract; most weather contracts use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time at the measurement site) but confirm the market page to be sure.
Settlement is based on the specific station or dataset named in the contract; if the contract does not name a single station, the platform’s published settlement rules explain how competing reports are reconciled—contact the platform or read the contract for the tie-break procedure.
Traders react quickly to late model runs and real-time observations because they can materially change the expected daily maximum; expect market prices to shift as new deterministic and ensemble forecasts, or surface observations, arrive in the 24–48 hours before the date.
Settlement usually occurs after the official daily summary from the named observing source is published; the exact timing and process (including any verification window or appeals procedure) are defined in the market’s settlement rules—review those rules for the expected timeline.