| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Boston on March 24, 2026 will be; it matters for short-term planning for transportation, energy demand, and outdoor events and provides a way to aggregate expectations about that day's weather.
Late March in Boston sits in a transition season, so temperatures can swing between lingering winter-like conditions and milder spring warmth; synoptic-scale patterns, coastal influences, and occasional late-season storms all shape outcomes. Long-term warming trends have shifted seasonal baselines, but day-to-day results remain driven by the immediate weather pattern that develops in the days before March 24, 2026.
Market odds reflect participants' collective expectations based on current forecasts, models, and emerging observations; they update as new model runs and observations arrive but are not guarantees of the final recorded temperature.
Settlement will follow the contract's specified observing source; many weather contracts use the official National Weather Service station for Boston (e.g., the automated station at Boston Logan), so check the market's settlement specifications on the event page to confirm the exact station and dataset used.
The event page should list the trading close time and settlement timeline; settlement generally occurs after the official daily observations for March 24 are published by the designated weather authority, but the exact close and settlement times are set in the contract and may be listed as TBD until the platform finalizes them.
This market's outcomes are usually organized into mutually exclusive temperature ranges or specific degree bins defined in the event rules; consult the outcome descriptions on the market page to see the exact ranges and how boundary values are handled.
Large-scale pattern forecasts give a general sense about a week out, while model consensus and high-resolution guidance in the 48–72 hours before the date typically provide the most useful detail for expected daytime highs; last-minute observations and model runs can still change expectations within that window.
Traders tend to watch official NWS forecasts and discussions, global models (ECMWF, GFS), high-resolution regional models and short-range ensembles, surface and upper-air observations, satellite and radar imagery for cloud/precip timing, and coastal sea-surface conditions that influence onshore flow.